Ideas

Confidence is the one product that never goes out of stock. Here is what it actually costs, and what calibrated doubt buys you instead.

This site exists because the subjects I care most about (faith, unexplained phenomena, artificial intelligence, building businesses) are exactly the ones where public conversation is loudest and least careful.

Forecasts about markets fail at remarkable rates, yet the people who make them keep their jobs and their confidence. The reason says more about us than about them.